AbbVie's post-Humira LOE plans are not riskless, and its targets are ambitious, but nevertheless I see no harm in picking up shares in the Pharma at the current price, accepting a generous 4% dividend, and likely benefitting from share repurchases and a steadily growing share price until 2030. It should be noted however that, with ~$12bn near-term debt falling due, and long-term debt of ~$61bn - most of it due to the $66bn acquisition of Allergan, completed in 2020, AbbVie has some hefty interest expense payments to make - $15bn between 2022 and 2027, I estimate, and the level of debt makes it tough for the company to invest in M&A deals. Although Wallet Investor did not provide targets for 2030, its longer-term Abbvie stock prediction expected the price to hit $300.386 in June 2027. All rights reserved. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. When looking for ABBV stock forecasts, its important to bear in mind that analysts forecasts can be wrong. The company didn't offer a . contact@marketbeat.com In the past I have written about the high level of competition between major Pharma in the auto-immune space - for example, for Psoriatic Arthritis the list of approved drugs includes Humira, UCB Pharma's Cimzia, Amgen's Enbrel, Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) Stelara, Eli Lilly's (LLY) Talzt, Novartis' (NVS) Cosentyx and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) Orencia. The company originated as the bio-pharma segment of Abbott Laboratories and was spun off in late 2012. Allergan was a troubled company in many ways, but there is no doubting the strength of its products and pipeline. This year is off to a strong start. AbbVie Stock Forecast 2022 - 2025 - 2030 | StockForecast.com GB Rinvoq's progress has been a little more circumspect, but almost as impressive. I do much more than just articles at Haggerston BioHealth: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Without the additional patents - >130 in total - Humira would have lost its market exclusivity in 2016, but having eventually lost protection in Europe, which has resulted in a sales decline from $6.3bn in 2018, to ~$2.7bn in 2022, Humira will finally face generic competition in the US from the beginning of this year. AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) pays an annual dividend of $5.92 per share and currently has a dividend yield of 3.83%. Within eye care, Restasis was a major disappointment, and the entire division seems to be struggling, with total revenues falling from ~$920m in Q2'21, to ~$720m in Q2'22. 2022 Cable News Network. As of February 15th, there was short interest totaling 11,710,000 shares, an increase of 13.7% from the January 31st total of 10,300,000 shares. This means that . The company issued revenue guidance of -. My EPS figure increases slightly between 2022 and 2023, whilst AbbVie has suggested it will be down slightly before beginning to accelerate towards the end of the decade, as revenues correspondingly begin to climb sharply once the worst of the Humira LOE is over. There are still very few approved therapies, although that could change with Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) / Vertex (VRTX) Sickle Cell Disease therapy leading the charge in 2023. The first is Epcoritamab, a CD3xCD20 bispecific for B-cell malignancies, including DLBCL and follicular lymphoma, which AbbVie expects will be approved this year. Among the more notable are ImmuVen, Pharamcyclics and Allergan plc. Join the 500.000+ traders worldwide that chose to trade with Capital.com, Also you can contact us: The company has a robust pipeline of new products that are in some stage of clinical trials. I believe AbbVie is likely 15 - 20% undervalued at current price. The firm earned $15.12 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $15.30 billion. Epcoritamab alone will not be sufficient to get AbbVie where it wants to be - despite some analysts believing it will be the highest grossing Pharma revenue wise by 2026. In this article we take a closer look at the Abbvie stock forecast, after analysing the firms latest earnings, price moving news and analyst comments. Negative dynamics for AbbVie shares will prevail with possible volatility of 1.976%. To see all exchange delays and terms of use please see Barchart's disclaimer. Revance Therapeutics gapped up 54.34% on January 9, and built upon those gains in February. Forecasts shouldnt be used as a substitute for your own research. As such, I have decreased my own expectations for 2022 based on simply doubling H1'22 revenues to get a FY22 figure, and downgrading growth expectations to 3% per annum until 2026. Bhd., AbbVie Sp. I haven't included Epcoritamab sales in my forecasts this time, but I hope to adjust the table before Q3'22 results are announced. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. The other major plus is probably the performance of the neuroscience divisions, where as we can see, Botox (indicated for migraine treatment), atypical antipsychotic Vraylar, migraine therapy Ubrelvy and newly launched Qulipta, an oral CGRP inhibitor indicated for chronic migraine all delivered good sales growth. Abbvie has a strong pipeline of projects ahead, and has recently received US FDA approval of its ulcerative colitis drug Rinvoq. These are Immunology, Oncology, Neurology, Virology and Eye Care. We now expect global sales for Skyrizi to reach more than $10 billion in 2025, an increase of $2.5 billion versus our previous guidance, reflecting higher performance across basically all of the indications. In other words, no Humira, no problem! Date. To summarize, although AbbVie does not have the same clout in oncology as it does in immunology - as evidenced perhaps by the declining sales of Imbruvica - it is clearly an area of focus for management. psoriatic arthritis at a lower dose, again with a comparable safety profile, and has also won approval in a field where Humira has not, namely Atopic Dermatitis. Over the next nine years, experts believe that GSK's Free Cash Flow will grow at a rate of 1.98%. z o.o., AbbVie Productos Farmacuticos Limitada, AbbVie Products LLC, AbbVie Promoo L.da, AbbVie Pte. Analysts have tipped the drug to achieve peak sales of $2.75bn, and although the emergence of CAR-T therapies and some concerns around safety - notably cases of cytokine release syndrome ("CRS') - persist, this revenue figure is achievable in my view. Management puts this down to "delayed market recovery for new patients starting therapy in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia ("CLL") and increasing competition" and has downgraded its FY22 guidance as a result. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. The company's average rating score is 2.44, and is based on 7 buy ratings, 9 hold ratings, and no sell ratings. AbbVie has been the subject of 9 research reports in the past 90 days, demonstrating strong analyst interest in this stock. Receive ABBV Stock News and Ratings via Email. The company had recorded a $4.7 billion increase in the contingent consideration liability related to Skyrizi last year. View the latest news, buy/sell ratings, SEC filings and insider transactions for your stocks. As we can see above one of either Skyrizi or Rinvoq has now been approved for all of the same indications as Humira is, except for Hidradenitis Suppurativa, although Rinvoq is undergoing a Phase study in this indication. PEG Ratios above 1 indicate that a company could be overvalued. The 21 analysts offering 1 year price forecasts for ABBV have a max estimate of and a min estimate of . I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Noting the stellar earnings reported by the firm in the first quarter, Richard A. Gonzalez, chairman and CEO of AbbVie, said: An overview of the companys net revenue in Q1 shows a major portion of revenue came from its immunology portfolio, which brought in $6.14bn. The average price target is $163.64 with a high forecast of $190.00 and a low forecast of $133.00. In the U.S. dermatology segment, where approximately 30% of patients exhibit both skin and joint involvement, Skyrizi is already achieving an in-play patient share of nearly 20%. AbbVie Aesthetics / Neurology revenues forecasts to 2030 (my table and assumptions). I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Both Leqembi and Donanemab are potential $5bn - $10bn selling assets, but both drugs still have safety questions to answer and not certain to be made eligible for reimbursement. Forecast . That is substantially higher than the 12% CAGR achieved between 2018 - 2022, although that period includes the additional revenues from Allergan. (AbbVie JPM Healthcare conference presentation). P/B Ratios above 3 indicate that a company could be overvalued with respect to its assets and liabilities. As we look beyond 2025, we expect combined sales for Skyrizi and Rinvoq to exceed the peak revenues achieved by Humira, which was more than $21 billion. I take the total revenue figure from each year and plug it into an income statement forecast as follows: AbbVie income statement forecast. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. First we can take a quick look at what a forward income statement for AbbVie might look like to 2030. Under the terms of the resolution, AbbVie will grant Alvotech a non-exclusive licence to its Humira-related patents in the US, which will begin on 1 July 2023. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. One of the few pain points AbbVie experienced during a year of portfolio wide growth in 2022 was the decline in the revenue contribution from Imbruvica, approved to treat various types of lymphoma. What that means is, essentially it will be on formulary with biosimilars, but there won't be any difference between the biosimilar and Humira from a co-pay standpoint or any kind of a step editing. See AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades. What other stocks do shareholders of AbbVie own? Get daily stock ideas from top-performing Wall Street analysts. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +88.28%. The difference between trading assets and CFDs. Any opinion that may be provided on this page does not constitute a recommendation by Capital Com or its agents. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 16 Wall Street research analysts have issued "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings for AbbVie in the last year. The P/E ratio of AbbVie is 23.61, which means that it is trading at a less expensive P/E ratio than the market average P/E ratio of about 126.03. AbbVie will have to drop its price point to compete with the generics however, plus there is the 10% of the market it is not covered for, so an overall 20% decline in revenues in 2023 seems accurate. AbbVie does not have the funds to pursue any large M&A deals, but it does not need to either, given the strength of its pipeline and products. Pharmaceuticals are often valued based on a philosophy of "jam tomorrow" as opposed to jam today i.e. I have plugged my revenue expectations into this table knowing that they closely match AbbVie management's own expectations based on what they have said in public. In my opinion, based on the current portfolio, AbbVie shares look undervalued below $160, but the upside above that price is limited, unless management is able to commercialize more products between now and the end of the decade, in order to achieve what looks like a very ambitious goal in driving high-single-digit revenue growth in the second half of this decade. Their combined revenues are expected to reach $7.5bn in 2022, and Gonzalez told the audience at JPM that: Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now on pace to deliver more than $17.5 billion in combined sales, risk adjusted sales in 2025, well above our previous expectations. This figure could eventually end up substantially larger - according to Gonzalez: We've begun to see some very exciting data from several solid tumor programs, including our anti-GARP antibody ABBV-151, and our PTK7 ADC, ABBV-647. That makes companies like AbbVie generally very attractive to investors although it should be noted that AbbVie carries a very high level of debt which stood at >$60bn as of Q322 - more or less the amount the company paid to acquire Allergan. It is important to do your own research, and remember that your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. Psoriatic arthritis is also adding significantly to Skyrizi's momentum, where we are now approved in 54 countries. The 21 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Abbvie Inc have a median target of 165.00, with a high estimate of 200.00 and a low estimate of 135.00. Within the oncology division sales of Imbruvica fell 17% year-on-year. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Zscaler, Inc Plummets, Is It Time To Buy The Dip? Other approved ADC's targeting the c-Met protein, a validated target in NSCLC, include Novartis Tabrecta, which has been pegged for peak sales of ~$1.5bn, which seems a realistic target for Teliso given how large the lung cancer market is - the largest of all oncology markets. Capital Com Australia Pty Ltd (ABN 47 625 601 489) is a company registered in Australia and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) under AFSL 513393. The dividend payout ratio of AbbVie is 89.56%. Duodopa is approved for Parkinson's Disease but Gonzalez believes that the subcutaneous non-surgical delivery system of candidate ABBV951 can "significantly expand the patient population currently addressed by Duopa", and sees the drug as yet another future blockbuster. And with a dividend yield of 4.9%, AbbVie is quite attractive for investors yearning for . I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Their ABBV share price forecasts range from $140.00 to $200.00. The division delivered >$1.65bn in sales in Q2'22, up >15% year-on-year, and with Vraylar, Ubrelvy and possibly Qulipta all earmarked for blockbuster sales - $4bn in the case of Vraylar - my forecasting suggests this division could double in size by 2030, from ~$6.6bn revenues generated in FY22, to >$13.5bn by 2030. The five-year dividend growth rate is just below 18%. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). All Rights Reserved. . I have not managed to match management's ambitious high-single-digit growth figures from 2025 - 2023, despite anticipating 6% growth for nearly all products in that period. Export data to Excel for your own analysis. The company reported its first revenue for Botox competitor Daxxify. AbbVie product revenues by quarter and year since FY20. Wallet Investor suggested that the price could hit $300.386 in June 2027. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). AbbVie passed that onto its 2022 guidance. Naturally, if there is a more effective and safe drug than Humira available for the same indication, then physicians are likely to prescribe it over Humira, or a Humira biosimilar. ABBV-916 is therefore a real opportunity for AbbVie to develop a more effective and safer drug in the same class and claim a sizeable share of a 6m patient market. Find me at my marketplace channel, Haggerston BioHealth - model portfolio + 4 exclusive stock tips every week. Multidrug Resistant Bacteria Treatment Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2030) Published: March 2, 2023 at 2:55 a.m. AbbVie Oncology Division Forward Revenue Projections (my table and assumtpions). The Large Pharma sector performed remarkably well in 2022, with the "Big 8" delivering an average ~15% gain whilst the S&P 500 index fell in value, and the biotech sector was in turmoil. All rights reserved. I am modelling for AbbVie to grow revenues at a compound annual growth rate of ~5% between now and 2030 with growth accelerating in the latter half of the decade. To be sure, AbbVie is modeling for a tough year in 2023 for the aesthetics market. I'm on twitter @edmundingham. After creating the income statement I prepare the discounted cash flow/EBITDA multiple analysis. Please. That led to an overall 6% year-on-year gain of 6%, and a 13% sequential gain. Morningstar: 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The company may not generate as much excitement as some of the other members of the "Big 8" - most notably Eli Lilly and its weight loss franchise, but the path to revenue growth, expanding margins and a growing share price is clear. The eye-disease markets are very large - Regeneron's Eylea is a >$7bn per annum selling drug and AMD markets are >$20bn in size. Let's begin our analysis with the immunology division. View which stocks are hot on social media with MarketBeat's trending stocks report. Abbvie Stock Forecast 2023 In the Biopharmaceutical Industry, Abbvie has been able to create a leadership position in the market in each business segment with different brand names in different business categories like Immunology, Hematologic Oncology, Neuroscience, Aesthetics, and Eye Care. AbbVie's Q2'22 earnings threw up some positives and negatives for investors to contemplate. AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) has a market capitalization of $276.13 billion and generates $58.05 billion in revenue each year. ABBV currently yields 4.1% and has raised its dividend every year since 2013. What is the dividend yield for AbbVie? ABBV has several positive factors pushing its price performance. Projections are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the ABBV stock price performance. (my tables and forecasting). AbbVie stock was up after posting a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report, but with the company's patent expiring on Humira, the stock is a hold, February 24, 2023|americanbankingnews.com, February 23, 2023|americanbankingnews.com. Teliso V is an antibody drug conjugate and a c-Met inhibitor. All times are ET. AbbVie has a P/B Ratio of 15.97. It now expects full-year profit in the range of $13.92-$14.12 a share. As such I have modelled similar, although I have included an additional revenue stream from new products which I expect to be minor in nature but ultimately contributing an additional $1.5bn to the top line. AbbVie trades on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol "ABBV.". Furthermore, it seems sales of Lupron and Synthroid have joined the "All Other" section, which has generated $2.2bn of revenues in the first half of 2022, versus $1.5bn in the first half of 2021. You should do your own research and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.